An Introduction to Baseball Betting

Wednesday, August 4th, 2010

Betting baseball is much different than football. There is no spread due to the difference in scores (usually by 1 or 2 runs). It’s also more difficult because of the number of games throughout the season and the number of players moving from team to team. As a result, sports books use money lines to wager on baseball as is found in other sporting events.

Money Lines

The money line establishes the amount of money placed and the amount won when betting on the favorite or underdog. The highest negative line indicates the favorite while the lowest negative and all positive lines designate the underdog. A $100 wager is the basis for the money line.

An Example of the Money Line

If the Yankees are playing the Red Sox, with the Yankees being the favorite, the money line may be cataloged as Yankees -150, Red Sox +120. This means if you bet on the Yankees, you’re placing a $150 wager to win $100. If betting on the Red Sox, you’re placing a $100 wager to win $120.

How do Casinos Collect their Money?

Casino’s and sports books have set up a vigorish (vig) which is a commission made on each bet. It is the difference between the wager and the amount won. Casinos make their money when the favorite loses. For instance, if the Yankees lose the casino would collect $30. Since the house is collecting $150 for the losing bet and only paying out $120 to the winners, they profit $30 on every bet placed.

The Key to Baseball Betting

The most important aspect to betting on baseball games is the pitching. The money line is affiliated with the starting pitchers of that particular game. Money lines are adjusted when scheduled starting pitchers do not start the game. Based on this method, there are a few types of betting:

  • Action
  • Based on two pitchers
  • Based on one pitcher

Action betting is when the wager is placed no matter which players are starting for either team. If the pitchers change, the bet stays. A two pitcher bet occurs when you base your bet on both starting pitchers. If one drops, the bet is canceled and your wager is returned. Finally with one pitcher betting, the basis of the bet is on a single starting pitcher. If he does not start the game, the bet is voided and wager returned.

Being successful at baseball sports betting is difficult to master. Since there are fewer individuals that bet on the numerous ballgames daily than on other sports, it can be a profitable niche if mastered.


Baseball betting: Tigers are Most Productive and Cubs are Least Profitable

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

With the second half of the Major League Baseball season set to get underway on Thursday, the Detroit Tigers will attempt to continue its dominance at home in a bid to win the AL Central division title. At the All-Star break, Detroit has been the most profitable home squad for MLB bettors at +16.8 units. The Tigers are just a half game behind the Chicago White Sox in the division race due in part to a 32-13 record at Comerica Park.

The Atlanta Braves (30-10 home record) are the next most profitable team at +15.7 units. With its strong play at Turner Field, Atlanta has a four-game lead in the NL East at the break. The team that trails the Braves in the NL East is next on the list.

The New York Mets (30-16 home record) have banked +11.4 units at Citi Field in 2010. New York’s pitching staff has allowed the fewest runs at home of any team in the majors at an even three runs per outing.

The Colorado Rockies are fourth on the list at +8.0 units. Colorado has posted a 31-16 mark at Coors Field this season. The Boston Red Sox (29-17 home record) round out the top five at +5.6 units. Over the last decade, Boston has been one of the most consistent home teams in all of baseball.

Cubs are least profitable at home

The Chicago Cubs have ranked as one of baseball’s biggest disappointments in the first half of the season. The club’s inability to play sound baseball at Wrigley Field has been a part of the problem. The Cubs are the least profitable home team in the majors at -13.4 units. While Chicago (20-23 home record) is just slightly under .500 at home, the squad has been a favorite more often than not at Wrigley in 2010.

Another team in the NL Central has also struggled at home this season. The Milwaukee Brewers have dropped -11.6 units at Miller Park this year with a 20-26 record. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff has allowed more runs in its home ballpark this season than the 5.7 runs per game allowed by Milwaukee’s hurlers.

In a surprise, the Tampa Bay Rays (26-20 home record) have been the least profitable team in the AL at -9.3 units. While Tampa Bay has put together the best road mark in baseball this season, the club has lost a number of games at home as a large favorite in 2010.


Baseball Betting News: National League Ends All-Star Skid

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

For the first time since 1996, the National League was able to come out on top in an All-Star Game. The National League posted a 3-1 win over the favored American League last Tuesday at the 2010 Midsummer Classic in Anaheim. Along with league pride, the victory will enable the NL to have the homefield advantage in a World Series for the first time since 2001. This could be critical for a decisive seventh game.

In the last eight World Series that have gone the distance, the home team has emerged from game seven as the champion. The 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates were the last road squad to win a seventh game in a World Series.

Braves a solid favorite to win NL pennant

The Atlanta Braves could be the team that ultimately benefits from its league’s success in the All-Star Game. With the biggest divisional lead in all of baseball, the Braves are a +240 favorite to claim its first pennant since 1999. Through July 18th, Atlanta has a five-game lead in the NL East. The St. Louis Cardinals are the next choice at +495. St. Louis is just a half game in front of the surprising Cincinnati Reds in the NL Central.

The Reds (+540) are just behind the Cardinals in the NL pool. Cincinnati’s last pennant was back in 1990. Like the Reds, the San Diego Padres (+650) have become a surprise contender in the 2010 MLB campaign. The club has the league’s best record at 54-37. The two-time defending NL champion Philadelphia Phillies are still in the hunt at odds of +725.

Yankees lead the pack in AL

The New York Yankees lead the way in the AL pennant chase at odds of +130. The defending World Series champions have the best record in baseball at 58-33. New York holds a 3-game edge over the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.  The Texas Rangers (+275) are hoping to break through to win its first pennant in the history of the franchise. Texas holds a 4.5-game advantage over the Los Angeles Angels in the AL West.

In 49 prior seasons, the Rangers franchise has won just a single game in the postseason and has never reached a league championship series. The Rays are the next option at +470. Tampa Bay may have to focus on a wild card bid to reach the playoffs in the AL.


Baseball Betting: Rockies Ace is MLB’s Most Profitable Hurler

Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

At the halfway point of the 2010 Major League Baseball regular season, Colorado Rockies All-Star right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez has been the top profit producer on the mound at +11.7 units. Colorado has posted a 15-2 record in his 17 starts. In games started by pitchers other than Jimenez, the Rockies have a mark of just 29-36.

New York Mets right-hander Mike Pelfrey is next on the list at +11.3 units. The young hurler has emerged to post a strong 2.96 E.R.A. heading into action on July 5th. The Mets are 13-3 in games that Pelfrey has started this season.

In the American League, veteran right-hander Freddy Garcia (+9.8 units) of the Chicago White Sox has been the top producer for MLB bettors. Despite an earned run average that is just under five, Chicago has won 11 of the 15 contests that Garcia has started for the club in 2010.

In just his second big league campaign, 22-year-old Oakland Athletics right-hander Trevor Cahill has put together a stellar year for his squad. With the help of a 2.74 E.R.A., Cahill (+8.8 units) has enabled the Athletics to post a 10-3 record in his 13 outings this season. Another young starter has come up big for his team this season. 24-year-old right hander Kris Medlen of the Atlanta Braves is just behind Cahill at +8.7 units. The Braves have lost only once in ten starts by Medlen in 2010.

Lack of offense hurting Cubs starting pitchers

A couple of Chicago Cubs starting hurlers are among the least profitable pitchers in baseball this season. Veteran right-hander Ryan Dempster is the least profitable starter at -9.3 units. While Dempster has posted a solid E.R.A. of 3.54, a lack of run support has led to a record of just 6-11 for Chicago in his 17 appearances this season.

Reigning AL Cy Young award winner Zach Greinke is just behind Dempster at -9.2 units. While Greinke hasn’t been able to dominate like he did in 2009, he has still been the ace of the Roayls staff in 2010. However, Kansas City is just 5-12 in his 17 starts. Like Dempster, Cubs lefty Tom Gorzelanny (-8.7 units) has pitched in some tough luck this season. Despite a 3.34 E.R.A., Chicago has managed to win only two of Gozelanny’s ten starts this year. Jeremy Guthrie of the Baltimore Orioles and Ryan Rowland-Smith of the Seattle Mariners round out the top five least profitable list at -7.9 units


Baseball Betting: Sun Devils favored and Diamondbacks are Top Over Team

Monday, June 21st, 2010

One of the top historical programs in all of college baseball is the favorite at the 2010 College World Series in Omaha. Among a field of eight schools, Arizona State is a +175 favorite to capture its sixth CWS title.

With a championship this year, the Sun Devils would tie LSU and Texas in second-place for the most all-time College World Series crowns. USC has won the most CWS championships with 12. ASU is in Bracket A with Clemson, South Carolina and Oklahoma. In a double-elimination format, one of the four clubs will advance to the championship series.

The Sun Devils will play its opening game on Monday against Clemson. On Sunday, Oklahoma defeated South Carolina in the opening contest in Bracket A. In Bracket B, UCLA is the favorite in a group that includes TCU, Florida and Florida State. The Bruins entered the CWS as the next choice behind ASU at +250. In opening action in Bracket B on Saturday, TCU handled Florida State by a final of 8-1 while UCLA stopped Florida by a count of 11-3. The loser of Monday’s Florida-Florida State matchup will be the first team to be eliminated from this year’s tournament.

Diamondbacks are top over team in MLB

With just three weeks to go before the All-Star break, the Arizona Diamondbacks have been the top over squad by a solid margin in the 2010 campaign. The Diamondbacks have gone over the total this season more than 63% of the time with a 43-25-2 over mark.A rough season on the mound has certainly played a role. Arizona has allowed the most runs in the majors this year at 5.8 runs per contest.On offense, the Diamondbacks are third in the National League in home runs with 82.

The Milwaukee Brewers are the second-best over team in baseball with an over record of 37-28-4. Like Arizona, the Brewers have had a weak pitching staff in 2010. On offense, Milwaukee is tied with Cincinnati for the league lead in homers with 83.

The Kansas City Royals (37-30-3 over record) are the top over team in the American League. The club’s offense has improved greatly from 2009. The Royals have the highest team batting average in all of baseball at .279.

In the other direction, the St. Louis Cardinals have been the top under squad in Major League Baseball this year with an under mark of 41-26-2.


Baseball Betting: Surprising Padres are MLB’s most profitable squad

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

With the halfway point of the 2010 Major League Baseball season about 20 games away, the San Diego Padres are the most profitable team in the game. Despite a low payroll and a roster of unheralded players, San Diego has banked +14.8 units of profit for baseball bettors this season.

At 37-26, the Padres have the best record in the National League. Pitching has been the key for the club. The Padres are allowing just 3.2 runs per outing to lead all of baseball. In contrast, San Diego is only 25th in the majors in offense at 4.1 runs per contest.

The Washington Nationals (31-33) are the next most profitable team at +8.8 units. The Nats are respectable in 2010 after posting the worst record in the majors in 2009. Heralded rookie pitcher Stephen Strasburg has won his first two starts for the squad after being the top overall draft choice in last year’s draft.

With a 34-30 record, the Toronto Blue Jays have been the top producer in the American League at +8.3 units. The Blue Jays have pounded out an MLB-high of 99 homers to help offset the loss of standout pitcher Roy Halladay during the offseason.

The Atlanta Braves (37-27) are the only other team that has produced more than seven units of profit at +7.1 units.

Orioles in range of dubious record

The Baltimore Orioles are on the brink of one of the worst seasons in the history of baseball. At 17-46, Baltimore has been the least profitable squad in the majors at -23.4 units. On its current pace, the Orioles would finish with a record of 44-118. The team is just barely ahead of the pace for the worst record in a single season.The expansion New York Mets in 1960 set the record for futility with a mark of 40-120.

While Baltimore wasn’t expected to contend in the loaded AL East this season, the Seattle Mariners were expected to challenge for the AL West title in 2010. With Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee forming a potent duo at the top of the rotation, the Mariners had a feared pitching staff heading into this season. With a 24-39 record, Seattle has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball at -17.4 units. In the National League, the Chicago Cubs (28-35) have been the least profitable club at -16.5 units.


Baseball Betting: Blue Jays top Producer Against Right-Handed Starters

Monday, June 7th, 2010

Through the first two months of the Major League Baseball season, the surprising Toronto Blue Jays have been the most effective team against right-handed starting pitchers. With a 27-16 record against right-handers, Toronto has banked +13.9 units of profit. Home runs have keyed a surprising start for the club.

The Blue Jays lead the majors with 89 homers. Jose Bautista has emerged to pound an MLB-high 16 home runs. Eight players in the lineup are on pace to hit more than 20 home runs this season.

The San Diego Padres (22-14 vs. right-handed starters) are next on the list with +9.6 units. While San Diego is averaging just 4.2 runs per game against right-handers, the Padres have allowed just 3.1 runs per outing in the 36 contests.

The Washington Nationals are in the third spot with +9.4 units. While the Nats are just 20-18 against right-handers, the squad has been in the underdog role more often than not this season.

The Cincinnati Reds (20-15 vs. right-handed starters) are next with +5.6 units. The Padres, Nationals and Reds are at .500 or better in 2010 after posting losing marks in 2009.

O’s struggling against right-handers

After a horrendous start in the first couple of weeks of the season, the Baltimore Orioles have been unable to put together any kind of a run in 2010. At -10.2 units, the Orioles have been the worst team in the majors against right-handed starters. Baltimore has posted a 10-23 record against right-handers this season.

In the National League, the Houston Astros have endured a tough couple of months to begin the year. Houston (13-28 vs. right-handed starters) is just behind Baltimore with -9.8 units. In the 41 games, the Astros have been held to an average of under three runs per contest. Arizona is next on the list at -9.3 units. The Diamondbacks are just 15-25 against right-handers in 2010.

Cabrera emerges as favorite in home run chase

While Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard began the year as the favorite to lead the majors in home runs during the 2010 regular season, Detroit Tigers first sacker Miguel Cabrera is now at the top of the pack with odds of +200. With 14 homers, Cabrera is tied for second in the majors in home runs. Albert Pujols (+350) is next on the list. He has hit 12 home runs this season and is tied for second in the NL in homers.     


Baseball Betting: Tigers are Most Profitable Home Squad

Wednesday, May 26th, 2010

Through May 17th, the Detroit Tigers have been the most dependable team for MLB bettors to back at home. With a 14-5 mark at Comerica Park this season, Detroit has banked +9.3 units of profit in its 19 home outings.

The defending World Champion New York Yankees are next on the list at +8.3 units. While New York is usually a steep favorite at Yankee Stadium, the club has come through for bettors with a 13-3 record at home in 2010.

The third-most profitable home squad is also an American League team. The Oakland Athletics have banked +7.1 units of profit with a home record of 14-7.

Over in the National League, the Washington Nationals have been the most profitable home club. The Nationals are at +6 units at home with an 11-8 record in Washington. The Cincinnati Reds (13-9 home record) are next on the list with +4 units.

Brewers have been brutal at home

While the Milwaukee Brewers have been a solid team at home in recent years, the club has struggled badly at Miller Park in the early weeks of the 2010 campaign. Milwaukee is 4-14 in 18 home outings for a result of -13.1 units.

A couple of other NL Central squads have also faltered at home. The Houston Astros are next on the least profitable list at home with a record of 7-15 for -9.1 units.

While the Chicago Cubs are a .500 club at home with a 10-10 mark, the club has been a solid favorite at Wrigley Field in most of its 20 outings in Chicago this season. Even with a level record, the Cubs are -6.8 units at home.

Over in the American League, a couple of squads that have struggled in recent years are still having problems in 2010. With a 7-12 record at Camden Yards, the Baltimore Orioles are the least profitable AL home team at -4.6 units. The Kansas City Royals (7-11 home record) have also failed to turn a profit at home with a result of -3.9 units.

Nationals are overall most profitable team in majors

While the Nationals are just a game above .500 at 20-19, the club is the most profitable team in Major League Baseball with +10.6 units of profit. The San Diego Padres (23-15 record) are next on the list at +10 units.

With a 23-17 record, the Toronto Blue Jays have been the most profitable AL squad at +9.5 units. At -13.6 units, the Cubs (17-22 record) bring up the rear as the least profitable team in 2010.  


Baseball betting: Brewers are top over team in MLB

Monday, May 24th, 2010

With about a quarter of the 2010 regular season now complete, the Milwaukee Brewers have been the top over team in the majors. Milwaukee has posted an over record of 24-12-3 through May 18th. The Brewers offense has produced as expected with young sluggers Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder to score 5.3 runs per contest. However, the pitching staff has faltered to allow nearly six runs per outing.

It’s a similar story for the Arizona Diamondbacks (25-13-3 over record) this season. The club’s offense has produced a solid average of five runs per game. Arizona was expected to have a solid starting rotation this year but the staff is allowing more than six runs per game.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are next on the list of over teams with a record of 23-17. LA’s deep lineup has produced over five runs per game but the pitching staff got off to a slow start. With a nine-game winning streak heading into May 19th, the Dodgers arms have improved in the last couple of weeks to curtail some of the overs.

In the American League, the Boston Red Sox are the top over squad at 21-16-3. In the last decade, Boston had one of top pitching staffs in the league. However, the Red Sox’s arms have struggled so far in 2010. The team is allowing 5.5 runs per game.

Cardinals are top under squad

The St. Louis Cardinals are the top under team in baseball with a record 26-13-1. With Cris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright heading the rotation, the Cards have allowed an average of just 3.5 runs per game. The offense has been inconsistent despite the presence of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the order. St. Louis is scoring just over four runs per outing.

The San Diego Padres are next on the list of top under squads at 23-12-4. In its vast home ballpark, low scoring games are typical. Overall, the Padres staff is giving ups just three runs per contest while the offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game.

The struggling Baltimore Orioles (24-14-2 under record) are the top under club in the American League. With an average of just 3.4 runs per game, the team’s offense has been a disappointment in 2010. The Houston Astros rank fourth on the list of top under teams with a mark of 22-14-3. Houston is last in the majors in runs scored with an average of less than three runs per outing.  


Baseball Betting: Blue Jays Top List of Most Profitable Road Squads

Friday, May 14th, 2010

With about 20% of the 2010 Major League Baseball season in the books, a surprise team has established itself as the most profitable road club in the early going. The Toronto Blue Jays have banked +10.9 units of profit in away outings in 2010. Toronto has posted a 12-5 road mark in 17 contests this season. After trading away ace right-hander Roy Halladay in the offseason, the club was projected to be one of the weaker squads in the American League this year.

Another AL East club is just behind Toronto in terms of road profitability. The Tampa Bay Rays (+8.5 units in away games) has the best road record in baseball this season at 13-4. In its 17 road outings through May 10th, Tampa Bay is allowing just 2.5 runs per game.

The next most profitable team is the Washington Nationals. While the club is just 7-6 in road outings, the Nats have banked +6.4 units of profit away from home. After having the worst record in the majors in 2009, the Nationals have been sizable underdogs in most of its away contests in the early portion of the 2010 season.

The only other squad that has produced more than four units of profit on the road this year is the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee has been the highest scoring away team so far in 2010 at 6.4 runs per outing. The club is 11-8 (+4.1 units) in away games but has the worst home record in the majors at 4-9.

Three NL clubs are the least profitable on the road

Three National League squads that were expected to be playoff contenders in 2010 are struggling on the road in the early going. The Atlanta Braves (6-14 away record) have been the least profitable road team in baseball this season at -9.1 units. An inconsistent offense has hurt Atlanta in the early portion of this season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (5-11 away record) are next on a dubious list at -8.4 units in road contests. LA’s pitching has been an issue in the team’s disappointing start this year. After a frustrating 2009 campaign, the Chicago Cubs were looking for a bounce back season in 2010. So far, some road struggles have hurt the team. The Cubs (7-12 away record) have lost -6.9 units for its backers away from Wrigley Field. 



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