Sports Betting Online & Sports Books Reviews

While the home ice edge in the NHL postseason is usually a lot less valuable than the home floor advantage in the NBA playoffs, this year’s Stanley Cup Finals has been controlled by the home squads through the first five games of the series. If the current trend holds, the Chicago Blackhawks are set to win its first Stanley Cup crown since 1961.

Heading into Wednesday’s Game 6 in Philadelphia, the Flyers are on the brink of elimination after dropping Game 5 in Chicago. Philadelphia is a slight -120 favorite to send the series back to Chicago for a decisive seventh game on Friday night. With two chances to win the title, the Blackhawks are a -500 choice to win the championship.

While the focus is on this year’s Stanley Cup, bookmakers have already posted odds for next season’s NHL championship. Chicago is the early favorite at +450. The Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins are the next options at +600.

Favorite comes up short at the Belmont Stakes

With the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness not in the field, last weekend’s Belmont Stakes lost some of its appeal. Ice Box entered the event as a 9-5 favorite but finished ninth in the field of 12 horses. Drosselmeyer came through to win the Belmont at odds of 13-1. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness champ Lookin At Lucky were absent from the race. This marked the fourth time in the last five years that three different horses have won the Triple Crown races.

Big names skipping US Open tuneup

With golf’s second major of the year set to get underway next week at Pebble Beach, most of golf’s top performers are bypassing this week’s PGA Tour event. Masters runner-up Lee Westwood is a +1200 favorite at the St. Jude Classic in Memphis this week. Young sensation Rory McIlroy and three-time majors champion Padraig Harrington are the next choices at +1600. McIlroy is 26th on the PGA Tour’s money list heading into the tournament.

For next week’s US Open, Tiger Woods is a +450 favorite. After failing to complete four rounds in each of his last two tournaments following a fourth-place finish at the Masters to open his 2010 season, Woods finished in 19th place at last week’s Memorial Tournament in Ohio. His last win in a major was at the US Open two years ago. Phil Mickelson is just behind Woods at +500.

In business, everyone is looking for the next big idea that will generate untold riches – and this concept easily applies to sports betting.  Is there some magical concept waiting to be discovered that will beat the point spread?

Many have tried in the past to uncover a system to predict point spread winners, and there will be plenty of others in the future who will try to find a strategy to beat the bookmaker.  However, is there really a foolproof system in sports betting?

Can you predict human behavior?

There are indeed strong betting systems and strategies that have proven to be successful, but they all face on inherent problem: changing human behavior.

Most of the successful sports betting systems are deeply tied to the past outcomes of games, which are believed to be the greatest indicator of future outcomes.  However, in reality, sports are constantly evolving.  For example, while the fundamental rules in baseball have essentially stayed the same in baseball in the last century, the performance of the players has dramatically changed.  The scoring in baseball during the 1980s was vastly different from the steroid era in the game that emerged in the late 1990s.

Many sports betting systems simply cannot keep up with the constant changes that occur in sports. Even subtle changes to the style of a game can have a major effect on the point spread results.

At the end of the day, sports betting involves human beings, which are inherently unpredictable. Subsequently, there is no way to develop a perfect betting system.  Nonetheless, the bettor can still find strategies that are capable of turning a profit over the long run.

Streak betting

This form of betting is rather simple and doesn’t really involve any handicapping. In this form of wagering, the bettor will determine a set number that is considered a streak. Once a team reaches the predetermined number to qualify as a streak, the bettor will automatically bet on or against the team that is on a streak.

There are two major positives to this form of betting. First, the bettor can only lose once in this system, when the streak ends.  Second, he can ride the streak to win many games in a row.

However, the major flaw or problem in this system involves the timing of when the bettor jumps on the streaking team. A club that has won four straight games could just as easily lose the fifth game than win it.

In the end, the bettor using this strategy should incorporate some handicapping to identify hot and cold teams. This system should generally be used on a very limited basis.

Following the lines

There are several ways that sports bettors will try to take advantage of the various line moves that occur on a particular game.

The first concept involves trying to middle a game. In this system of betting, the player will have wagers on both teams.  Here’s an example of an opening and closing line that could result in a middle: Opening line: Team A (-6), Team B (+6), closing line: Team A (-3), Team B (+3).

To try to get a middle, the bettor would place a bet on team B at the beginning and team A at the end. If team A wins by four or five points, the bettor will have recorded a middle on the game. In other words, each of his bets on the game would win, despite the fact he placed wagers on both teams. The bettor needs to middle only 1 out of 20 games to turn a modest profit with this strategy.

Unfortunately, this system is difficult to implement. There aren’t too many games where the odds will move more than a point or two.  In addition, the bettor must anticipate how the lines will move off of the opening odds.  To use this strategy properly, the bettor needs to have a strong understanding of how lines will move from day to day.

In a slightly different strategy, bettors will simply follow line moves. In this system, the concept revolves around following the smart money that is coming in on a team. However, the flaw in this system involves the bettors that follow the original move obtaining less favorable odds than the players that placed the original wagers. Bettors that use this strategy need to closely evaluate the true value of a wager at a less desirable number.

While there may not be any magical sports betting system, there are certainly smart strategies to employ that will help you win an edge against the bookmaker.

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There are many variables involved in the determination of what a point spread, money line or over/under figure will be. The bookmaker must be aware of several important factors before a line is posted.

Point differentials/averages

The bookmaker must take a hard look at the prior outcomes for teams in attempting to determine a future result. The won/loss record for each team should be noted, but a more important factor in determining a point spread involves the margin of victories and defeats for a team. A point differential number indicates the average numerical result for a team over a series of games.

If a football team has played ten games, the bookmaker will evaluate the total number of points that are scored and allowed by a team. He will divide the numbers by ten to calculate an average result. If a team averages 24 points a game while allowing 21 points per contest, the club would have an average point differential of plus three. The bookmaker would then compare the point differential figures for each team for an upcoming game to develop a general idea of the typical numerical difference between each squad.

In the example listed, the scoring averages would be combined to help the bookmaker to determine a total or over/under figure for the game. With 24 scored and 21 allowed, the total average would be 45 for the team in the example. Like the point spread, the bookmaker would combine the total averages for the two teams to roughly estimate how many points might be scored in the upcoming game.

The venue of the game

The site of the game also must be noted by the bookmaker. Generally, the home team will given a field goal edge in football and four points in basketball.

However, there are certain teams that will perform above or below these standard averages. The bookmaker needs to have a general understanding of how important a specific home field or court truly is. Home records and score results from home games should be noted.

Injuries

While sports teams are always looking to play its very best players, there are usually a few key players that are sidelined by injuries. Because of the physical nature of the sport, injuries are common place in football.  In the week leading up to a game, many players will be listed as questionable on the injury report.

The bookmaker must be aware of any developments involving key players that are related to injuries. The absence of a star quarterback can have a dramatic effect on the odds for an upcoming game. It is important for the bookmaker to keep pace with the bettors when it comes to finding out the status of a key injured player.

Injuries are also important in basketball because of the limited number of players on a roster. The absence of an elite player from an NBA or college team due to an injury can prove to be worth a few points in the point spread.

Weather conditions

Weather conditions can become a factor in the over/under numbers that are posted for a football game. Heavy rains can affect a game in several ways. The rain can make it difficult for quarterbacks to grip and throw the ball. Rushers and receivers can also have trouble keeping control of the ball. In addition, a steady rain can adversely impact the conditions of the playing surface.

Snowy conditions can have the same negative effects with the added element of bitterly cold temperatures. Even in dry conditions, extreme winds and/or cold temperatures can have a major effect on the total of a football game. Subsequently, the bookmaker needs to keep an eye on any extreme weather patterns that could develop during the week.

Intangible factors

After inputting the basic elements of an upcoming game, the bookmaker must consider intangibles that are not as easy to measure as the stats.

For football odds, key point spread numbers like 3, 4, 6 and 7 must be noted by the bookmaker. Because so many outcomes land on these numbers, the bookmaker must be wise when he moves point spread figures around these numbers.

The bookmaker must also have a feel of how professional sports bettors might view a particular game. There are also certain scheduling elements that can play a role in the odds for an upcoming game. Is the game viewed as a big revenge contest by a team in college football? Clearly, there are subtle elements to booking a game that can’t be ignored, and these intangible factors often play a role in the outcome.

Sports betting lines must take into account a myriad of factors.  With this in mind, it is not surprising that bookmakers each have different lines – and you can take advantage of this fact by finding the best lines for your bets.

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The novice bettor can initially experience trouble understanding the basic elements of a point spread. In reality, with a little explanation, the lines aren’t too difficult to comprehend.

A standard football line

The most common football bets involve wagers on the point spread and the total or over/under. Here’s an example of what a standard NFL point spread might look like:

101 Cowboys +3 (-110)

41

102 Steelers   -3 (-110)

Beginning sports bettors often wonder what the numbers to the left of each team mean. In this example, the 101 and 102 numbers are the betting numbers assigned to each team.

Nevada and online sports books enter wagering information into a computer. These computer systems are designed to track each game through betting numbers that correlate to a specific team on a specific date.

If a bettor wants to place a wager on the Steelers, the ticket writer at a Nevada sports book wouldn’t type “Steelers” into his betting terminal, as these computer stations have a numeric focused keypad. Instead, the writer would enter the number 102 and print up the wagering ticket for the customer.  For an online wager, the bettor is prompted to click on the appropriate betting number.

The next aspect of the line to understand involves the numbers to the right of each team. In point spread odds, the team with the minus number is the favored squad. In this example, Pittsburgh is favored by three points. For the bettor to win his bet on the Steelers, Pittsburgh must win the game by four points or more.

However, a novice bettor may be confused by this type of wager. The beginner will sometimes think that he has won the bet, even if the Steelers win by only one or two points. If a bettor wants to wager on Dallas, the Cowboys must win the game or lose by only two points or less for the player to win his bet. If the Steelers win the game by a field goal, the result is considered a push. When this happens, the sports book will return the original bet amount to the player.

The -110 numbers can also confuse beginning sports bettors. The bookmaker charges a fee to accept these types of wagers. If there is an equal amount of action on a game, the bookmaker is able to turn a profit on the vigorish or juice associated with the losing bets.  To win $100, the bettor must put up $110. If the bettor wins, he will get paid a total of $210.

The next aspect of the line involves the number 41 that is at the far right. This is the over/under figure or total on the game. If the bettor places a wager on the over, the two squads must combine for 42 points or more. To win an under bet, the player will need the two clubs to score fewer than 41 points.  At a Nevada sports book, the computer terminals have keys that read over and under. To enter one of these bets, the writer would key one of the betting numbers (either one is acceptable) and then hit either the over or under keys.

Finally, it is important to understand that the team at the bottom of the odds is the home team. In the example, the Steelers are at the bottom, which indicates that the game is being played at Pittsburgh. For neutral site games, a home team will either be designated by the sports league or the bookmaker.  Most sports books will provide information on its schedule of games regarding when a contest is being played at a neutral site.

The NFL example also covers what typical point spreads look like in college football, the NBA and college hoops.

The money line

The bettor also has the option of simply wagering on what team will win a particular game, regardless of the margin of victory. While these bets are available in football and basketball, money line wagers are most common to the sport of baseball.

Here’s an example of a typical baseball money line:

101 Giants    +130

102 Dodgers   -150

Like the NFL example, each team is assigned a betting number and the home club (Los Angeles) is listed at the bottom. To place a bet on the Dodgers, the bettor must put up $150 to win $100, while a $100 bet on the Giants would yield a return of $130. Because there is limited scoring in baseball, the standard bets in baseball involve simply picking the winning team.

While there are many numbers in sports betting lines, they always follow the same format, making it easy for you to read the lines once you understand the fundamentals.

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